Maple Thread Grains Ltd.

Prairie Crop Note ยท Harvest edition

Late harvest, solid grades, ample pulse supply

What the 2026 Canadian harvest means for buyers of wheat, pulses and canola. Built from Statistics Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the Canadian Grain Commission and the provincial crop reports of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

October 2026Data to October 6, 2026By Kyle Hoyda, CEO

At a glance

Canadian wheat crop36.1Mt

Down 10.9% from 2025's record, with yields still above the five-year average.

Statistics Canada, Sept. 16
CWRS in top two grades77%

Of 527 harvest samples graded to October 6. Mean protein 14.0%.

Canadian Grain Commission
Prairie harvest progress82% SK

Alberta 78% and Manitoba 65% of all crops. Saskatchewan and Alberta are behind their five-year averages after a wet September.

Provincial crop reports, Oct. 5 to 6
Lentil and pea stocks2.5Mt

Carried in on July 31: lentils 1.3 Mt, peas 1.2 Mt, both more than double a year earlier.

Statistics Canada, Sept. 9

Wheat

A smaller crop, good grades and high protein

Statistics Canada's first estimate puts total wheat production at 36.1 million tonnes, down 10.9% from last year's record. Spring wheat is estimated at 26.5 million tonnes and durum at 6.4 million tonnes. Yields are lower than 2025 but still above the five-year average. These model estimates use data to the end of August, before September rain slowed the harvest.

Quality has held up. Of 527 CWRS samples graded by the Canadian Grain Commission to October 6, 77% made No. 1 or No. 2. Mean protein is 14.0%, highest in Manitoba at 14.6%, with Saskatchewan at 13.6% and Alberta and B.C. at 13.3%. Fusarium damage was the most common reason samples fell to No. 3, and a frequent factor in No. 2.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's August outlook expects wheat exports (excluding durum) of about 23.5 million tonnes in 2026-27, close to last year's record, and forecasts the average No. 1 CWRS 13.5% price in Saskatchewan at $300 per tonne, up from $269.

For buyers

Top-grade, high-protein CWRS is available, with Manitoba wheat the highest in protein this year. Because fusarium is the main downgrading factor, set a DON (vomitoxin) limit in your contract specification. Mills that do not need 14% protein can find value in CPS or No. 3 CWRS.

Pulses

A smaller lentil crop on top of record stocks

Canada exported 2.5 million tonnes of lentils in 2025-26, up 37%, including 1.6 million tonnes of red lentils. India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey were the main markets. Even so, Canada carried a record 1.3 million tonnes of lentils, and 1.2 million tonnes of peas, into the new crop year.

For 2026-27, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts lentil production down 26% to 2.5 million tonnes, with exports of 2.4 million tonnes and prices rising from last year's average. Dry pea production is forecast at 3.15 million tonnes, with exports of 2.7 million tonnes.

The pulse harvest is largely done. Manitoba's field peas were fully harvested with good quality by October 6, Alberta's peas are virtually complete at 42.1 bushels per acre, and Saskatchewan reports lentil yields of 1,532 pounds per acre and peas at 37 bushels per acre.

For buyers

Supply of red lentils and yellow peas is comfortable this winter thanks to record carry-in stocks. With AAFC expecting lentil prices to firm as production falls, buyers planning South Asian programs may want to price earlier in the season.

Canola

Record area, a near-record crop

Statistics Canada estimates canola production at 22.1 million tonnes, down just 0.8%, from a record 23.2 million harvested acres. AAFC expects record domestic crush of 13.7 million tonnes, leaving exports down 12% at 8.0 million tonnes. The canola harvest is running behind: Manitoba was 74% done by October 6 with reports of green seed and sprouting, and Alberta had just over half combined.

What we are watching

Into the winter

  1. Dec. 4Statistics Canada's final survey-based production estimates for 2026, which will capture the September rain.
  2. QualityCanadian Grain Commission harvest sample updates for CWRS, CWAD and pulses as later-harvested fields are graded.
  3. OutlookAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada's monthly supply and price forecasts for wheat, lentils and peas.
  4. HarvestHow much of the remaining canola and northern wheat comes off before freeze-up, and at what grade.